PARPCC #7 : Is there a “Chinese Wagner” ?

Panda, Rice Alcohol and PCC is a column of Camille Brugier, aimed at introducing scientific articles to a wider audience. His publications can be found on his thread Twitter.

After the episode where Wagner's mercenaries marched on Moscow before turning back, it seems relevant to ask whether the possibility of a private army that would turn against Beijing is likely. In sum, is there a “Chinese Wagner” ?

With the Belt & Road initiative (2013), China has a growing need to ensure the security of the activities of its public and private companies, especially in Africa, where its activities are numerous and the risks significant (riots, terrorist acts, piracy, vols, etc.). contractors, diplomats, workers and Chinese, formerly discreet, are now much more visible and therefore targeted, like the Americans, Europeans, Israelis, etc.

Even if China is increasingly asserting itself as a security actor at the international level – with the establishment of a military base in Djibouti for example – the business of Chinese private security companies remains in its infancy, and Africa offers a giant test to see if its 5000 companies which exercise almost exclusively in Chine, are capable of conducting operations beyond its borders.

On the African continent, Chinese interests have so far relied on foreign companies or local armed militias, or even in “Do It Yourself” mode, by arming the employees themselves which led to tragedies, as the death of illegal miners in a mine operated by a Chinese company in Zambia. The services offered by Chinese private security companies remain “basic” (commercial property protection) and are not suitable for extremely complex and volatile situations, like Libya for example.

otherwise, the Chinese security business is still a bit “cheap” : competition is on price, and Chinese customers are reluctant to pay premiums, while foreign customers want quality service first. The pioneer companies are those providing escort and protection of vessels in risk areas and the protection of Chinese VIPs against kidnappings.. However, this development is limited : we are talking about a handful of companies (on 5000 !). To compare, in South Africa alone, There is 2000 companies registered just for the close protection business.

The development of this sector of activity is difficult : the Party does not wish to cut back on its monopoly of legitimate violence : the arming of personnel remains prohibited by Chinese law and the last major law regulating this sector in China dates from 1993, with an internal and not an international aim.

China therefore remains to this day in a different market segment from Western forces or Russia. : Chinese private security companies do not provide military services to governments and therefore remain more in the private security company sector – with protective functions (often by unarmed personnel), unlike private military companies like Wagner who offer military services to governments, arms supply, and engage in combat.

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Brief, today there is no “Chinese Wagner”.

Par Camille Brugier

Reference:

Reference: Arduino, Alessandro (2020), “The footpring of Chinese private security companies in Africa”, China Africa Research Initiative, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, Working paper n°35.